A recent Survey USA poll of the Missouri 9th District showed Blaine Luetkemeyer with a lead over Judy Baker.
There are two good reasons not to put much stock in this new poll:
1. AUTOMATED POLLING. The first reason is that Survey USA is an automated poll that does not screen for actual voters and one that often produces wildly inaccurate results. The Associated Press does not report on automated polls because of these problems.
On the same day that the MO-09 Survey USA poll was released, Survey USA was taking some heat today for a poll in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District where the Republican overperformed by 27 points compared to two independent telephone polls of the same race and where the Republican candidate even overperformed by 15 points compared to his own internal poll.
Survey USA showed the Republican +17 while two other Independent polls showed the Republican -10 and even the Republican’s own poll showed him only +2.
That controversy is discussed here:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2959
But even supposing that the automated poll didn’t favor the Republican by 15 to 27 points as happened in another congressional race, there is still reason not to take Luetkemeyer’s lead too seriously.
2. RALLY BUBBLE. It should also be noted that the poll was commissioned immediately following a huge rally in Missouri’s 9th District where Luetkemeyer shared a stage and got free speaking time and extensive free earned media time with John McCain at a national convention like atmosphere. John McCain and Sarah Palin were in Missouri’s 9th District at a 23,000 person rally (the largest of McCain’s campaign) that earned tons of free local media the day before the start of the two day Survey USA poll of MO-09. McCain, Palin, Bond, Hulshof, Luetkemeyer all shared the stage at the rally along with some Country Western singers.
Any poll held immediately after an all day infomercial for one side is likely to give a rally bubble just like the DNC and RNC give convention bumps.
I’d like to see Obama come to a baseball stadium with all the popular Democrats in Missouri and then have a poll immediately after that. Baker would surely have a double-digit lead in a poll under those conditions.
Given the favorable conditions of the local events on the ground at the time of this poll for Luetkemeyer, even if one could trust Survey USA results (and any poll that has undecideds at 2% in a race where both candidates have fairly low name recognition and where the Libertarian is polling in double digits probably has some significant flaws)…the rally bubble effect would be in full force.
Given all this, I think the earlier Momentum Analysis poll showing a dead heat is probably far closer to reality.
This race is sure to be one of the closest in the country and Judy Baker needs our support to win this close race. If you donate to Judy Baker via my ActBlue page on this website anytime between now and Monday September 8th at 10PM I will match all donations between now and Monday at 10PM up to $400.