Left In Missouri

Reading the Sunday Columbia Tribune, I came across an article about the race Between Baker and Luetkemeyer.  Once again, when this paper seeks out an informed analysis from an expert, why does it go to the same punditry that has not been right about the race from the beginning.  Let me remind you that Larry Sabato called this race to be between Onder and Gaw.  Marvin Overby slao stated that the Democratic nominee would be Gaw because he would appeal to the “rural” voter.  But as we all know, that appeal fell short.  So why, if all these pundits are batting under the political Mendoza line, why is the media fascinated with them.?

Overby implies in the article that once again Baker only appeals to Boone County folks, but can be caricatured as a “Columbia liberal” outside of it.  This does not reflect reality.  Like it or not, she won in those rural counties during the primary and currently is polling ahead of Luetkemeyer in Callaway County.  I know many pundits want this race to go Blaine’s way.  It will make them appear knowledgeable and their reputation as pundits will be upheld.  However Oversby appears to be stating opinion, not fact.

Fact: An internal poll had Judy up by 2:  An indpendent poll had Blaine up by 9, both were in the margin of error.  The SurveyUSA poll was an automated poll that does not ensure the person on the phone is a voter and was taken right before the Republican convention so that one is a bit dubious.

Like it or not, this is going to be in a close race.  Baker is statistically tied with Luetkemeyer.  I’d say Baker is in a very good position in a +19 Bush district five weeks before the election